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Functional forms: log-lin, lin-log and log-log models
Take logs to straighten a curve. Log-lin (ln Y on X) fits steady percentage growth: the slope is the relative change in Y per unit of X. Lin-log (Y on ln X) fits fading effects: the slope is the change in Y for a relative change in X. Log-log (ln Y on ln X) gives an elasticity.
Before this: The four regression assumptions and what residual plots reveal
On the exam
- Describe different functional forms of simple linear regressions
Describe the log-lin, lin-log and log-log functional forms, interpret their slopes and pick the right form. Expect to convert a log-model prediction back with e^x, or to read a log-log slope as an elasticity. Traps: reading a log-lin slope as an absolute change, forgetting to exponentiate.
How deeply to learn each part
- Know the idea
- Understand it in general. It frames other topics, but you will not calculate with it.
- Use it
- Understand it well enough to solve a question with it. Recognize when it applies.
- Memorize
- Learn it by heart. The exam will not give it to you.
You know this one. The full lesson is folded away. The takeaways, formulas and checkpoint below are your quick refresher, and the checkpoint is a fair test of whether you still do.
You tested strong here. The full lesson is folded away. The takeaways, formulas and checkpoint below are your quick refresher, and the checkpoint is a fair test of whether you still know it.
What if the relationship is not a straight line?
A straight line fits some relationships badly. If a company’s revenue compounds at a steady percentage, a scatter against time bends upward, and the residuals of a linear fit trace a U. The remedy is to change the functional form : replace Y, X or both with their logarithms. The natural logarithm transformation turns multiplicative growth into additive steps, which a straight line handles.
The regression machinery is unchanged. Everything from the earlier lessons (least squares, R², t-tests, the standard error of estimate or SEE) works on the transformed variables. What changes is what the slope means and how you predict.
- Neither: lin-lin Use it the ordinary straight-line model
- Y only: log-lin Memorize ln Y = b₀ + b₁X
- Use for constant percentage growth over time
- Slope relative change in Y per unit X
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- X only: lin-log Memorize Y = b₀ + b₁ ln X
- Use for diminishing effects
- Slope change in Y per relative change in X
-
- Both: log-log Memorize ln Y = b₀ + b₁ ln X
- Use for constant-elasticity relations
- Slope elasticity, % change in Y per 1% in X
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What is the log-lin model?
In the log-lin model only Y is in logs.
The slope is the relative change in Y for a one-unit change in X. For small values, is the percentage growth; the exact growth is . This is the model for compound growth over time, with X as the time period.
To predict Y you must reverse the log:
A log-lin model is ln Y = 4.2 + 0.065X. For X = 10, the predicted Y is closest to:
e^(4.2 + 0.065 × 10) = e^4.85 = 127.7404
Predicted Y127.7404
- 0.065×10+4.2=2NDe^x
2ND second function (the shifted label above a key) · e^x e to the power x
- 0.065ENTER10×4.2+ge^x
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · g blue shift key · e^x e to the power x
What is the lin-log model?
In the lin-log model only X is in logs. Equal percentage rises in X give equal absolute rises in Y, so the effect of each extra unit of X fades as X grows.
The slope is the change in Y for a relative change in X: a 1% rise in X changes Y by about .
What is the log-log model?
In the log-log model both variables are in logs.
The slope is an elasticity : the percentage change in Y for a 1% change in X. It is the standard way to estimate a demand curve with constant elasticity.
In a log-log model the slope is 0.6. A 10% rise in X is associated with a change in Y closest to:
0.6 × 10% = 6%
Approximate change in Y6.00%
- 0.6×10=
- 0.6ENTER10×
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
How do you choose the form?
Look at the scatter and the residual plot of a linear fit. A curved pattern in the residuals is the signal. Try the transformation that matches the economics: compounding growth suggests log-lin, fading effects suggest lin-log, constant percentage responses suggest log-log. The right form leaves residuals that look like random noise.
You can compare candidate models using R², F and SEE, but only when the dependent variable is the same. The R² of a model for ln Y and the R² of a model for Y describe the variation of different things, so they cannot be compared directly.
Exam tip Name the form by where the logs are: log on Y only is log-lin, on X only is lin-log, on both is log-log. Then say what the slope is a change in.
Go deeper Why compound growth is linear in logs
If revenue grows by the same factor each year, , then . That is a straight line in with slope , the continuously compounded growth rate you met in the rates and returns lessons. Regressing the log of revenue on time estimates that rate directly, and converts it to the ordinary annual growth.
Go deeper Elasticities in economics
The price elasticity of demand is the percentage change in quantity for a 1% change in price. A log-log demand regression estimates it as a constant across all prices, which is why the form appears in economics. A slope of −1.2 means a 1% price rise cuts quantity by about 1.2%, and demand is elastic.
Memorize this
MemorizeThree functional forms
| Model | Equation | Slope means | Fits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Log-lin | relative change in Y per unit X () | steady percentage growth | |
| Lin-log | change in Y for a relative change in X (1% gives ) | effects that fade as X grows | |
| Log-log | elasticity: % change in Y per 1% change in X | constant-elasticity relations |
Memory hook Read the model name as "Y-side, X-side": the log sits on the side that is measured in percent. Log on Y means Y moves in percent; log on X means X moves in percent. Log on both: percent per percent.
Know it cold A prediction from a model with ln Y must be exponentiated: Y = e^(predicted ln Y). Compare R² only between models with the same dependent variable.
- Neither: lin-lin Use it the ordinary straight-line model
- Y only: log-lin Memorize ln Y = b₀ + b₁X
- Use for constant percentage growth over time
- Slope relative change in Y per unit X
-
- X only: lin-log Memorize Y = b₀ + b₁ ln X
- Use for diminishing effects
- Slope change in Y per relative change in X
-
- Both: log-log Memorize ln Y = b₀ + b₁ ln X
- Use for constant-elasticity relations
- Slope elasticity, % change in Y per 1% in X
-
Quick example
ln Y = 1.0 + 0.10X. At X = 3, ln Y = 1.30, so Y = e^1.30 = 3.67. The slope says Y grows about 10% per unit of X.
- 0.1×3+1=2NDe^x 3.6693
2ND second function (the shifted label above a key) · e^x e to the power x
- 0.1ENTER3×1+ge^x 3.6693
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · g blue shift key · e^x e to the power x
Quick example
Y = 4 + 2 ln X. X rises from 50 to 60. Y changes by 2 × ln(60 ÷ 50) = 2 × 0.1823 = 0.36.
- 60÷50=LN×2= 0.3646
LN natural logarithm
- 60ENTER50÷gLN2× 0.3646
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · g blue shift key · LN natural logarithm
Quick example
Price elasticity of demand b₁ = −1.2. A 5% price rise goes with a change in quantity of about −1.2 × 5% = −6%.
- 1.2+|-×5= −6
+|- change sign
- 1.2CHSENTER5× −6
CHS change sign · ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
Quick example
ln Y = 2.0 + 0.05X. At X = 20: ln Y = 3.0, so Y = e^3.0 = 20.09.
- 0.05×20+2=2NDe^x 20.0855
2ND second function (the shifted label above a key) · e^x e to the power x
- 0.05ENTER20×2+ge^x 20.0855
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · g blue shift key · e^x e to the power x
How it is asked
-
Predict from a log-lin model
ln Y = 2.1 + 0.08X. Predicted Y at X = 5?
ln Y = 2.5, so Y = e^2.5 = 12.18. Trap: 2.50 is the log, not Y.
-
Elasticity
ln Sales = 3.0 + 0.6 ln Price index. Price index up 10%?
Sales up about 0.6 × 10% = 6%.
-
Which model fits growth?
Revenue grows at a roughly constant percentage a year. Best model?
Log-lin: ln(revenue) on time.
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Lin-log change
Y = 4.0 + 2.5 ln X. X rises from 80 to 100. Change in Y?
2.5 × ln(100 ÷ 80) = 0.56.
Exam traps
- Reading a log-lin slope as an absolute change in Y: it is a relative (percentage) change.
- Forgetting to exponentiate a prediction from a model with ln Y.
- Comparing R² across models with different dependent variables (Y versus ln Y).
- Reading a log-log slope as a change in units: it is a percent-per-percent elasticity.
Checkpoint
4 exam-style questions. About 90 seconds each.
1A log-lin model is ln Y = 2.1 + 0.08X. For X = 5, the predicted Y is closest to:
2In the model ln(Sales) = 3.0 + 0.6 ln(Price index), a 10% rise in the price index is associated with sales closest to:
3Revenue that grows at a roughly constant percentage each year is best modeled with a:
4A lin-log model is Y = 4.0 + 2.5 ln X. When X rises from 80 to 100, the predicted change in Y is closest to:
Key takeaways
- Log-lin: relative change in Y per unit of X (growth). Lin-log: change in Y per relative change in X. Log-log: elasticity.
- Exponentiate predictions from models whose dependent variable is ln Y.
- Pick the form that leaves boring residuals, and compare fit only with the same dependent variable.
Quick example
ln Y = 1.0 + 0.10X. At X = 3, ln Y = 1.30, so Y = e^1.30 = 3.67. The slope says Y grows about 10% per unit of X.
- 0.1×3+1=2NDe^x 3.6693
2ND second function (the shifted label above a key) · e^x e to the power x
- 0.1ENTER3×1+ge^x 3.6693
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · g blue shift key · e^x e to the power x
Quick example
Y = 4 + 2 ln X. X rises from 50 to 60. Y changes by 2 × ln(60 ÷ 50) = 2 × 0.1823 = 0.36.
- 60÷50=LN×2= 0.3646
LN natural logarithm
- 60ENTER50÷gLN2× 0.3646
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · g blue shift key · LN natural logarithm
Quick example
Price elasticity of demand b₁ = −1.2. A 5% price rise goes with a change in quantity of about −1.2 × 5% = −6%.
- 1.2+|-×5= −6
+|- change sign
- 1.2CHSENTER5× −6
CHS change sign · ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
Quick example
ln Y = 2.0 + 0.05X. At X = 20: ln Y = 3.0, so Y = e^3.0 = 20.09.
- 0.05×20+2=2NDe^x 20.0855
2ND second function (the shifted label above a key) · e^x e to the power x
- 0.05ENTER20×2+ge^x 20.0855
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · g blue shift key · e^x e to the power x
Questions about this lesson?
Where this comes back
- Simple Linear Regression Quantitative Methods
- Introduction to Financial Statement Modeling Financial Statement Analysis
Questions candidates ask
How do you interpret a log-lin regression coefficient?
In ln Y = b₀ + b₁X, the slope is the relative change in Y for a one-unit rise in X. A slope of 0.065 means Y grows about 6.5% per unit of X (exactly e^0.065 − 1 = 6.7%). It is not an absolute change in Y.
What does the slope mean in a log-log model?
It is an elasticity: the approximate percentage change in Y for a 1% change in X. With ln Sales = 1.8 + 0.4 ln Advertising, a 1% rise in advertising goes with about a 0.4% rise in sales.
When should you use a log transformation in regression?
When a scatter or residual plot is curved or fanning, and the relation is better described in percentages: compounding growth (log-lin), effects that fade (lin-log) or constant elasticities (log-log). Choose the form that leaves patternless residuals.
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