Valuing a forward when the asset pays income or has costs
Adjust today's spot price for the carry still to come: subtract the present value of income still to be paid, add the present value of costs still to be incurred, then subtract the present value of the forward price. V_t(T) = [S_t − PV_t(I) + PV_t(C)] − F₀(T)(1 + r)^−(T−t).
Before this: Forward price vs forward value: at initiation, during the life, at expiry, Cost of carry: income, storage and convenience yield
On the exam
- Explain how the value and price of a forward contract are determined at initiation, during the life of the contract, and at expiration
Explain the value of a forward during its life when the asset has income or costs. Expect a dividend-paying stock forward, sometimes a breakeven spot price (value equals zero), and occasionally the direction of a currency forward's value.
How deeply to learn each part
- Know the idea
- Understand it in general. It frames other topics, but you will not calculate with it.
- Use it
- Understand it well enough to solve a question with it. Recognize when it applies.
- Memorize
- Learn it by heart. The exam will not give it to you.
You know this one. The full lesson is folded away. The takeaways, formulas and checkpoint below are your quick refresher, and the checkpoint is a fair test of whether you still do.
You tested strong here. The full lesson is folded away. The takeaways, formulas and checkpoint below are your quick refresher, and the checkpoint is a fair test of whether you still know it.
How does the cost of carry change a forward’s value?
The cost of carry is the net of what it costs to own the asset (storage, insurance) and what owning it pays (dividends, coupons). The no-arbitrage forward price already includes it. During the life of the contract it also changes the value, because the long does not own the asset and so does not collect the income or pay the costs.
Start from the pricing formula you met in the arbitrage and cost-of-carry module, with present values taken at t = 0.
Because F₀(T) includes the carry, the value at initiation is still zero, and at expiration the value is still S_T − F₀(T). Only the value during the life needs an adjustment.
What is the value during the life with income and costs?
Adjust the spot price for the carry still ahead. The present value of income still to be paid is subtracted, and the present value of costs still to be incurred is added. Then subtract the present value of the forward price over the remaining time, as before.
The short’s value is the negative. The subscript t matters: the present values are measured at time t and cover only the items between t and T.
- Income still to come Memorize dividends, coupons: PV_t(I) is subtracted from S_t
- Effect on the long value is lower
- Why the long will not receive the income; the owner of the asset will
-
- Costs still to come Memorize storage, insurance: PV_t(C) is added to S_t
- Effect on the long value is higher
- Why the long avoids the costs; the owner of the asset pays them
-
- Items already paid Memorize ignored; recompute the present values at t
Each remaining payment is discounted over the time until it is paid.
A payment of 1.80 is due in 0.166667 years. The risk-free rate is 6.00%. Its present value is closest to:
1.80 × (1 + 0.06)^−0.166667 = 1.7826
Present value, PV_t1.78
- 1.06y^x0.166667+|-=×1.8=1.7826
y^x power · +|- change sign
- 1.06ENTER0.166667CHSy^x1.8×1.7826
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · CHS change sign · y^x power
Worked example: a dividend-paying stock forward
A dividend-paying stock forward is the standard case. Take a share at EUR 85 that pays EUR 1.80 in eight months, with r = 6% and a one-year forward.
A forward was agreed at 88.26. With 0.5 years left the spot price is 89.00, the present value of the income still to come is 1.78, the present value of the costs still to come is 0.00 and the risk-free rate is 6.00%. The value of the long position is closest to:
(89.00 − 1.78 + 0.00) − 88.26 × (1 + 0.06)^−0.5 = 87.22 − 85.73 = 1.49
Value of the long position, V_t(T)1.49
- 1.06y^x0.5+|-=×88.26=85.7257
- +|-+89−1.7826+0=1.4917
y^x power · +|- change sign
- 1.06ENTER0.5CHSy^x88.26×85.7257
- CHS89+1.7826−0+1.4917
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · CHS change sign · y^x power
Try this 0 of 3
- Drag today past the dividend date
- Find the spot price today at which the long is worth zero
- Switch the carry item to a storage cost, with today before it
Contract terms (fixed at month 0)
| Spot today S_t | 89.00 |
|---|---|
| − PV of income still ahead | −1.7826 |
| − PV of F₀(T) | −85.73 |
| = Long value | +1.49 |
The dividend is still ahead, so its PV comes off spot. The long will not receive the dividend; only the holder of the share does. Breakeven spot today: 87.51.
Show working
At month 0: PV₀ of the dividend = 1.80 × 1.06−8/12 = 1.7314; F₀(T) = (85.00 − 1.7314) × 1.06 = 88.26
Today (month 6): PV_t = 1.80 × 1.06−2/12 = 1.7826; PV of F₀(T) = 88.26 × 1.06−6/12 = 85.73
Long V_t = [S_t − PV_t(I)] − F₀(T)(1 + r)−(T − t) = (89.00 − 1.7826) − 85.73 = +1.49; short = −1.49.
Traps: ignoring the dividend gives +3.27; using 1.80 instead of its PV gives +1.47.
- 1.06y^x(2÷12)=1/x×1.8=STO11.7826, PV of the dividend still ahead
- 1.06y^x(6÷12)=1/x×88.2647=STO285.73, PV of F₀(T)
- 89−RCL1−RCL2=+1.49, long value
y^x power · 1/x reciprocal · STO store · RCL recall a stored number
- 1.8ENTER1.06ENTER2ENTER12÷y^x÷STO11.7826, PV of the dividend still ahead
- 88.2647ENTER1.06ENTER6ENTER12÷y^x÷STO285.73, PV of F₀(T)
- 89ENTERRCL1−RCL2−+1.49, long value
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · y^x power · STO store · RCL recall a stored number
The “today” marker is the whole story. Drag it past the dividend date and PV_t(I) drops to zero: income already paid no longer counts.
Exam tip Same signs as the pricing formula: income comes off, costs go on. Only the clock changes, from 0 to t.
How is a currency forward valued?
The currency forward value follows the same logic with two interest rates. In a quote f/d, the long buys the base currency d. Its value is today’s spot rate minus the forward rate, discounted at the interest rate differential over the remaining time. Level I uses continuous compounding here.
A long forward to buy the base currency was agreed at 1.4848 units of the price currency per unit. With 0.75 years left the spot rate is 1.476. The continuously compounded rate is 3.50% in the price currency and 2.50% in the base currency. The value of the long position per unit of base currency is closest to:
1.476 − 1.4848 × e^(−(0.035 − 0.025) × 0.75) = 0.00229
Value of the long position per unit of base currency0.0023
- 0.035−0.025=×0.75=+|--0.0075
- 2NDe^x×1.4848=1.473706
- +|-+1.476=0.002294
+|- change sign · 2ND second function (the shifted label above a key) · e^x e to the power x
- 0.035ENTER0.025−0.75×CHS-0.0075
- ge^x1.4848×1.473706
- CHS1.476+0.002294
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · CHS change sign · g blue shift key · e^x e to the power x
The exam usually asks only for the direction. If the differential r_f − r_d narrows, the present value of F₀ rises and the long loses. If it widens, the long gains.
Go deeper Coupon bonds as the underlying
For a forward on a coupon bond, the coupons still to be paid before expiration are the income I. Discount each from its payment date to time t. Coupons already paid drop out, exactly as a paid dividend does.
Go deeper What if the dividend changes after initiation?
The forward price F₀(T) was set net of the dividends expected at initiation, so a dividend that arrives as expected creates no gain or loss for the long. It appears in the value formula only because the spot price still includes a dividend the long will not receive. If the dividend is later cut, PV_t(I) falls and the long’s value rises by the same amount. If it is raised, the long’s value falls.
Memorize this
MemorizeCarry and the long forward value
| Item | In the formula | Effect on long's value |
|---|---|---|
| Income still to come | lower | |
| Costs still to come | higher | |
| Income or costs already paid | not counted | none |
Memory hook Same sign pattern as the price formula, but with t instead of 0: income comes off, costs go on, and only items between t and T count.
Know it cold . Short is the negative. Breakeven: set .
- Income still to come Memorize dividends, coupons: PV_t(I) is subtracted from S_t
- Effect on the long value is lower
- Why the long will not receive the income; the owner of the asset will
-
- Costs still to come Memorize storage, insurance: PV_t(C) is added to S_t
- Effect on the long value is higher
- Why the long avoids the costs; the owner of the asset pays them
-
- Items already paid Memorize ignored; recompute the present values at t
Quick example
Share at 64, PV of dividends before expiry 1.1922, r = 4%, six months. (64 − 1.1922) × 1.04^0.5 = 64.05.
- 1.04y^x0.5=×(64−1.1922)= 64.0516
y^x power
- 64ENTER1.1922−1.04ENTER0.5y^x× 64.0516
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · y^x power
Quick example
A dividend of 1.50 is due in three months and r = 6%. PV = 1.50 × 1.06^−0.25 = 1.48.
- 1.06y^x0.25+|-=×1.5= 1.48
y^x power · +|- change sign
- 1.06ENTER0.25CHSy^x1.5× 1.48
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · CHS change sign · y^x power
Quick example
Spot 30.00, PV of remaining dividends 0.80, forward agreed at 29.00, r = 4%, 0.5 years left. 30.00 − 0.80 − 29 × 1.04^−0.5 = 0.76.
- 1.04y^x0.5+|-=×29= 28.44
- +|-+30−0.8= 0.76
y^x power · +|- change sign
- 1.04ENTER0.5CHSy^x29× 28.44
- CHS30+0.8− 0.76
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · CHS change sign · y^x power
Quick example
Same forward: S = 0.80 + 29 × 1.04^−0.5 = 29.24. The long breaks even when the spot price is 29.24
- 1.04y^x0.5+|-=×29+0.8= 29.24
y^x power · +|- change sign
- 1.04ENTER0.5CHSy^x29×0.8+ 29.24
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · CHS change sign · y^x power
Quick example
Forward agreed at 1.2500, spot now 1.2400, r_f = 1.5%, r_d = 2.5%, 0.25 years left. 1.2400 − 1.2500 × e^0.0025 = −0.0131 per unit of base currency.
- 0.015−0.025=×0.25=+|-2NDe^x×1.25= 1.2531
- +|-+1.24= -0.0131
+|- change sign · 2ND second function (the shifted label above a key) · e^x e to the power x
- 0.015ENTER0.025−0.25×CHSge^x1.25× 1.2531
- CHS1.24+ -0.0131
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · CHS change sign · g blue shift key · e^x e to the power x
How it is asked
-
Value with a dividend still to come
F₀ = 88.26, six months left, r = 6%, spot 89, a 1.80 dividend due in two months.
(89 − 1.80 × 1.06^−(2/12)) − 88.26 × 1.06^−0.5 = 1.49. Traps: 3.27 (ignores the dividend), 5.06 (adds it).
-
Breakeven spot price
At what spot price is the long worth zero?
Set V = 0: S* = PV_t(I) − PV_t(C) + PV of F₀. Trap: forgetting to add the PV of the dividend back.
-
Direction: income or costs
Effect of storage costs on the long's value?
Costs are added to S_t, so the value is higher. Trap: calling costs a deduction.
-
Currency forward direction
Interest rate differential r_f − r_d falls after the forward is agreed. Long (buys base currency)?
PV of F₀ rises, so the long loses.
Exam traps
- Subtracting the dividend amount instead of its present value.
- Including a dividend that has already been paid. Only income between t and T counts.
- Using the PV of income from initiation at time t. Recompute it with the time left.
- Adding income to S_t (or subtracting costs). Income comes off, costs go on.
Checkpoint
6 exam-style questions. About 90 seconds each.
1Two long forwards have the same forward price, the same expiration date and, today, the same spot price. The underlying of the first will pay a dividend before expiration; the underlying of the second pays no income. Compared with the second, the value of the first long position today is most likely:
2A forward agreed at USD 92.43 has nine months left. The risk-free rate is 5%, the spot price is USD 95 and a USD 2.00 dividend is due in one month. The value of the long position is closest to:
3For a forward on a stored commodity, the present value of the remaining storage costs is:
4A forward on a share was agreed at F₀(T) = 54.00. Six months remain, the risk-free rate is 4% and a dividend of 0.60 is due in three months. The spot price at which the long position is worth zero is closest to:
5Some months ago a trader went long a forward to buy EUR 1,000,000 against SEK at 11.40 (SEK per EUR). The remaining time is now 0.5 years, the spot rate is 11.30 and the continuously compounded rates are 3.0% in SEK and 2.0% in EUR. The value of the long position is closest to:
6A trader is long a currency forward (buys the base currency). After the contract is agreed, the price-currency risk-free rate falls, narrowing the difference r_f − r_d, and other parameters are unchanged. The mark-to-market value of the long position:
Key takeaways
- V_t(T) = [S_t − PV_t(I) + PV_t(C)] − F₀(T)(1 + r)^−(T−t).
- Count only income and costs still to come between now and expiration, each as a present value at t.
- For a given spot price and forward price, income still to come lowers the long's value and costs raise it. The short is the mirror image.
- A currency forward's value is S_t minus F₀ discounted at the rate differential over the remaining time.
Quick example
Share at 64, PV of dividends before expiry 1.1922, r = 4%, six months. (64 − 1.1922) × 1.04^0.5 = 64.05.
- 1.04y^x0.5=×(64−1.1922)= 64.0516
y^x power
- 64ENTER1.1922−1.04ENTER0.5y^x× 64.0516
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · y^x power
Quick example
A dividend of 1.50 is due in three months and r = 6%. PV = 1.50 × 1.06^−0.25 = 1.48.
- 1.06y^x0.25+|-=×1.5= 1.48
y^x power · +|- change sign
- 1.06ENTER0.25CHSy^x1.5× 1.48
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · CHS change sign · y^x power
Quick example
Spot 30.00, PV of remaining dividends 0.80, forward agreed at 29.00, r = 4%, 0.5 years left. 30.00 − 0.80 − 29 × 1.04^−0.5 = 0.76.
- 1.04y^x0.5+|-=×29= 28.44
- +|-+30−0.8= 0.76
y^x power · +|- change sign
- 1.04ENTER0.5CHSy^x29× 28.44
- CHS30+0.8− 0.76
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · CHS change sign · y^x power
Quick example
Same forward: S = 0.80 + 29 × 1.04^−0.5 = 29.24. The long breaks even when the spot price is 29.24
- 1.04y^x0.5+|-=×29+0.8= 29.24
y^x power · +|- change sign
- 1.04ENTER0.5CHSy^x29×0.8+ 29.24
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · CHS change sign · y^x power
Quick example
Forward agreed at 1.2500, spot now 1.2400, r_f = 1.5%, r_d = 2.5%, 0.25 years left. 1.2400 − 1.2500 × e^0.0025 = −0.0131 per unit of base currency.
- 0.015−0.025=×0.25=+|-2NDe^x×1.25= 1.2531
- +|-+1.24= -0.0131
+|- change sign · 2ND second function (the shifted label above a key) · e^x e to the power x
- 0.015ENTER0.025−0.25×CHSge^x1.25× 1.2531
- CHS1.24+ -0.0131
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · CHS change sign · g blue shift key · e^x e to the power x
All Derivatives formulas, every lesson
Practice exam-style questions on Pricing and Valuing Forward Contracts and FRAs
Questions about this lesson?
Where this comes back
- Implied forward rates from spot rates Pricing and Valuing Forward Contracts and FRAs
- Pricing and Valuing Futures Contracts Derivatives
Questions candidates ask
How do dividends affect the value of a forward contract?
For a given spot price and forward price, dividends still to be paid before expiration lower the value of the long position, because the long will not receive them. Subtract the present value of those dividends from the spot price, then subtract the present value of the forward price. Dividends already paid no longer count.
How do you value a forward on a dividend-paying stock?
V_t(T) = [S_t − PV_t(I)] − F₀(T)(1 + r)^−(T−t). Discount each remaining dividend from its payment date back to time t, subtract their sum from the spot price, and subtract the forward price discounted over the remaining time.
Do storage costs increase forward value?
Yes, for the long. The present value of storage costs still to be incurred is added to the spot price, because the long avoids paying them. Costs already paid no longer count, and the short's value moves the opposite way.
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