Analyst Dojo

Learning Module 7 of Equities 11–14% of the exam

Relative Valuation with Multiples

5 lessons. About 37 minutes in cram mode, 168 minutes in full.

Lessons

  1. 1
  2. 2
  3. 3
    Enterprise value multiples

    calculate 8 min cram, 36 min full

  4. 4
    Choosing a peer group for multiples

    determine 6 min cram, 26 min full

  5. 5
    Trailing, current and forward multiples

    describe 6 min cram, 28 min full

What the exam expects you to do

  1. Explain the process for using multiples to value equity based on the method of comparables and the method of forecasted fundamentals.Valuing with multiples: comparables and forecasted fundamentals
  2. Calculate and interpret price and enterprise value multiples, and describe their appropriate uses.Price multiples: P/E, earnings yield, P/S, P/B and dividend yield
  3. Determine a potential peer group for multiples-based equity valuation based on a company’s industry classification or specific drivers of expected return.Choosing a peer group for multiples
  4. Describe the use of multiples based on past, current, and projected future values in estimating equity value.Trailing, current and forward multiples

Module summary

The whole module on one sheet, organised by lesson: what to memorize, how the ideas fit together, the formulas and the key terms. No paragraphs, just what you need to revise.

How deeply to learn each part
Know the idea
Understand it in general. It frames other topics, but you will not calculate with it.
Use it
Understand it well enough to solve a question with it. Recognize when it applies.
Memorize
Learn it by heart. The exam will not give it to you.
1

Valuing with multiples: comparables and forecasted fundamentals

Known

MemorizeThe method of comparables

StepWhat to do
1choose peers with similar cash flow, risk and growth
2select a multiple; numerator and denominator for the same claimants
3calculate and compare; median when skewed; drop not-meaningful values
4judge over-, under- or fairly valued
5apply: value = multiple × fundamental, or a terminal value

Memory hook Peers, multiple, compare, verdict, apply.

Know it cold Positive skew: mean > median, so use the median.

MemorizeJustified multiples from fundamentals

ToolFormulaReading
Justified P/B(ROE−g)/(re−g)(\text{ROE} - g)/(r_e - g)above 1 when ROE > rer_e
Sustainable growthg=(1−payout)×ROEg = (1 - \text{payout}) \times \text{ROE}payout =1−g/ROE= 1 - g/\text{ROE}
PEGP/E ÷ growth (as a number)higher: more likely overvalued
Regressionpredicted vs actual multiplepredicted > actual: possibly undervalued

Memory hook P/B lives on the spread between ROE and the cost of equity.

Know it cold Justified multiple: peer median (comparables) or value drivers (forecasted fundamentals).

Key terms

  • relative valuation Know the idea
  • principle of no arbitrage Know the idea
  • method of comparables Memorize
  • five-step relative valuation process Memorize
  • peer group Use it
  • multiple Know the idea
  • value to claimants Know the idea
  • consistency of numerator and denominator Know the idea
  • central tendency of peer multiples Use it
  • mean versus median Use it
  • skewed distribution of multiples Use it
  • outliers Use it
  • not meaningful multiples Use it
  • justified multiple Memorize
  • method of forecasted fundamentals Memorize
  • trailing multiple Use it
  • forward multiple Use it
  • justified price-to-book ratio Use it
  • sustainable growth rate Use it
  • adjustment approach Use it
  • price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio Use it
  • regression approach Know the idea
  • value from a peer multiple Use it
  • multiples in a terminal value Know the idea
The method of comparables in five steps
Relative valuation by comparablessimilar assets should trade at similar prices
  • 1. Choose peers Memorize similar cash flow, risk and growth
  • 2. Select a multiple Memorize numerator and denominator for the same claimants
  • 3. Calculate and compare Memorize median or mean; outliers; not meaningful values
  • 4. Judge the value Memorize over-, under- or fairly valued, on past, current or future figures
  • 5. Apply Memorize support a discounted cash flow value or set a value range
Where a justified multiple comes from
Justified multiplean estimate of the fair value of a multiple
  • Method of comparables Memorize peer mean or median
  • Method of forecasted fundamentals Memorize built from profitability, growth and reinvestment
  • Both combined correct the peers for differences in fundamentals
    • Adjustment approach Use it for example the price/earnings-to-growth ratio
    • Regression approach Know the idea predicted multiple from the peers' fundamentals

Formulas

Value from a peer multiple Use it
V=peer multiple×company fundamentalV = \text{peer multiple} \times \text{company fundamental}
Quick example

A peer median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.0 and company earnings per share (EPS) of 2.40 give 12.0 × 2.40 = 28.80 per share. Applied to total net income it gives a market capitalization instead.

On your calculator
  1. 12×2.4= 28.80
  1. 12ENTER2.4× 28.80

ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

Justified P/B from fundamentals Memorize
PtBVEt=ROE×Payout ratiore−g=ROE−gre−g\dfrac{P_t}{BVE_t} = \dfrac{ROE \times \text{Payout ratio}}{r_e - g} = \dfrac{ROE - g}{r_e - g}
Quick example

Return on equity 17%, cost of equity 11%, growth 3%: (0.17 − 0.03) ÷ (0.11 − 0.03) = 0.14 ÷ 0.08 = 1.75.

On your calculator
  1. 0.17−0.03=÷(0.11−0.03)= 1.75
  1. 0.17ENTER0.03−0.11ENTER0.03−÷ 1.75

ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

Sustainable growth rate Memorize
g=(1−Payout ratio)×ROEg = (1 - \text{Payout ratio}) \times ROE
Quick example

Payout ratio 40% and return on equity 15%: 0.60 × 15% = 9.0%.

On your calculator
  1. 1−0.4=×0.15= 0.09
  1. 1ENTER0.4−0.15× 0.09

ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

PEG ratio Use it
PEG=P/EExpected EPS growth rate\text{PEG} = \dfrac{\text{P/E}}{\text{Expected EPS growth rate}}
Quick example

A P/E of 24 with expected EPS growth of 12% (entered as 12) gives 24 ÷ 12 = 2.00.

On your calculator
  1. 24÷12= 2.00
  1. 24ENTER12÷ 2.00

ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

Regression-predicted multiple Know the idea
P/Bi=a+b1×ROEi+b2×gi+ei\text{P/B}_i = a + b_1 \times ROE_i + b_2 \times g_i + e_i
Quick example

Estimated a = −0.80, b₁ = 20, b₂ = 25; a peer with ROE 12% and growth 3% is predicted at −0.80 + 2.40 + 0.75 = 2.35.

On your calculator
  1. 0.8+|-+(20×0.12)+(25×0.03)= 2.35

+|- change sign

  1. 0.8CHSENTER20ENTER0.12×+25ENTER0.03×+ 2.35

CHS change sign · ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

2

Price multiples: P/E, earnings yield, P/S, P/B and dividend yield

Known

MemorizeJustified price multiples

MultipleJustified formMoves up with
Trailing P/Epayout(1+g)/(re−g)\text{payout}(1 + g)/(r_e - g)g up, rer_e down
P/Snet profit margin × justified P/Emargin up
P/B(ROE−g)/(re−g)(\text{ROE} - g)/(r_e - g)ROE above rer_e
Trailing dividend yield(re−g)/(1+g)(r_e - g)/(1 + g); leading re−gr_e - grer_e up, g down
Price to FCFE1/(re−g)1/(r_e - g)g up, rer_e down

Memory hook Every justified multiple is the constant growth model divided by a fundamental.

Know it cold Trailing P/E = forward × (1 + g). Paying out more cuts growth, so payout alone does not lift P/E.

MemorizeEarnings for the P/E and earnings yield

ItemRule
Earnings yieldEPSt+1/Pt\text{EPS}_{t+1}/P_t
PVGO share1−(EPSt+1/Pt)/re1 - (\text{EPS}_{t+1}/P_t)/r_e; negative: reinvestment destroys value
Core earningsstrip gains, write-downs, impairments, provisions, estimate changes, discontinued operations
Normalized EPSaverage EPS over the cycle, or average ROE × current BVPS (better if size changed)
Actual P/Epayout ratio ÷ dividend yield

Memory hook No growth: price = EPS ÷ rer_e. Everything above that is growth.

Know it cold Yield below justified → price too high (overvalued); P/S only for low-debt firms.

Key terms

  • price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) Memorize
  • weighted average shares outstanding Know the idea
  • trailing P/E Memorize
  • forward P/E Memorize
  • earnings yield Use it
  • present value of growth opportunities (PVGO) Use it
  • negative PVGO Use it
  • justified trailing P/E Memorize
  • drivers of P/E Memorize
  • payout and growth trade-off Use it
  • core earnings Know the idea
  • non-recurring items Know the idea
  • normalized EPS Use it
  • historical average EPS method Use it
  • average return on equity method Use it
  • dilution Know the idea
  • price-to-sales ratio (P/S) Use it
  • net sales Know the idea
  • justified P/S Use it
  • price-to-book ratio (P/B) Use it
  • price to tangible book value Use it
  • price-to-dividend multiple Know the idea
  • dividend yield Memorize
  • dividend rate Know the idea
  • trailing dividend yield Memorize
  • leading dividend yield Memorize
  • justified dividend yield Memorize
  • cash flow multiples Know the idea
  • price to free cash flow to equity Know the idea
Price multiples and what drives them
Price multiplesprice over a shareholder figure; same basis for every firm
  • P/E Memorize payout, growth, cost of equity; trailing or forward
  • P/S Memorize profit margin; only for low-debt firms
  • P/B and price to tangible book Memorize ROE against cost of equity; banks
  • Dividend yield Memorize trailing or leading; mature payers
  • Price to FCFE Know the idea 1 ÷ (r_e − g); stable FCFE
Getting the E in P/E right
Earnings for the P/Ea P/E is only as good as its EPS
  • Core earnings Use it strip non-recurring items
  • Normalized EPS Use it cyclical firms
    • Average EPS over the cycle the simple method
    • Average ROE × current BVPS better when size changed
  • Dilution Know the idea options, warrants, convertibles lower EPS
  • Not meaningful Use it zero, negative or tiny EPS

Formulas

Price-to-earnings ratio Memorize
P/E=PtEPS,Trailing: EPSt,Forward: EPSt+1\text{P/E} = \dfrac{P_t}{\text{EPS}}, \quad \text{Trailing: EPS}_t, \quad \text{Forward: EPS}_{t+1}
Quick example

Price 54.00, trailing EPS 3.60 and forward EPS 4.00: trailing P/E 15.0 and forward P/E 13.5.

On your calculator
  1. 54÷3.6= 15.0
  2. 54÷4= 13.5
  1. 54ENTER3.6÷ 15.0
  2. 54ENTER4÷ 13.5

ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

Price and PVGO Use it
Pt=EPSt+1re+PVGO,PVGOtPt=1−EPSt+1/PtreP_t = \dfrac{\text{EPS}_{t+1}}{r_e} + \text{PVGO}, \quad \dfrac{\text{PVGO}_t}{P_t} = 1 - \dfrac{\text{EPS}_{t+1}/P_t}{r_e}
Quick example

Price 60.00, forward EPS 3.30, cost of equity 11%: earnings yield 5.5%, so PVGO ÷ P = 1 − 0.50 = 50%.

On your calculator
  1. 1−(3.3÷60÷0.11)= 0.50
  1. 1ENTER3.3ENTER60÷0.11÷− 0.50

ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

Justified trailing P/E Memorize
PtEPSt=Payout ratio×(1+g)re−g\dfrac{P_t}{\text{EPS}_t} = \dfrac{\text{Payout ratio} \times (1 + g)}{r_e - g}
Quick example

Payout 65%, cost of equity 11%, growth 3%: 0.65 × 1.03 ÷ 0.08 = 8.37.

On your calculator
  1. 0.65×1.03÷(0.11−0.03)= 8.37
  1. 0.65ENTER1.03×0.11ENTER0.03−÷ 8.37

ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

Normalized EPS Use it
EPSnorm=EPS‾cycle  or  ROE‾cycle×BVPSt\text{EPS}_{norm} = \overline{\text{EPS}}_{cycle} \;\text{or}\; \overline{\text{ROE}}_{cycle} \times \text{BVPS}_t
Quick example

Average return on equity 11% and book value per share 20.00: normalized EPS = 0.11 × 20.00 = 2.20.

Justified P/S Use it
PtSalest=Net profit margin×Payout ratio×(1+g)re−g\dfrac{P_t}{\text{Sales}_t} = \dfrac{\text{Net profit margin} \times \text{Payout ratio} \times (1 + g)}{r_e - g}
Quick example

Margin 12%, payout 65%, cost of equity 11%, growth 3%: 0.12 × 8.37 = 1.00.

On your calculator
  1. 0.12×0.65×1.03÷0.08= 1.00
  1. 0.12ENTER0.65×1.03×0.08÷ 1.00

ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

Price-to-book and price to tangible book Use it
P/B=PtBVPSt,Price to tangible book=PtBVPSt−intangibles per share\text{P/B} = \dfrac{P_t}{\text{BVPS}_t}, \quad \text{Price to tangible book} = \dfrac{P_t}{\text{BVPS}_t - \text{intangibles per share}}
Quick example

Price 35.00, book value per share 28.00 of which intangibles 8.00: P/B 1.25, price to tangible book 1.75.

Justified dividend yield Memorize
Trailing: DivtPt=re−g1+g,Leading: Divt+1Pt=re−g\text{Trailing: } \dfrac{Div_t}{P_t} = \dfrac{r_e - g}{1 + g}, \quad \text{Leading: } \dfrac{Div_{t+1}}{P_t} = r_e - g
Quick example

Cost of equity 12%, growth 5%: trailing 0.07 ÷ 1.05 = 6.67%, leading 7.00%.

On your calculator
  1. 0.12−0.05=÷1.05= 0.0667
  1. 0.12ENTER0.05−1.05÷ 0.0667

ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

Dividend yield, payout and P/E Use it
DivtPt=DivtEPSt×EPStPt\dfrac{Div_t}{P_t} = \dfrac{Div_t}{\text{EPS}_t} \times \dfrac{\text{EPS}_t}{P_t}
Quick example

Payout 50% and P/E 12.5: dividend yield = 0.50 ÷ 12.5 = 4.00%, so the actual P/E equals the payout ratio ÷ the dividend yield.

Price to FCFE Know the idea
PtFCFEt+1=1re−g\dfrac{P_t}{\text{FCFE}_{t+1}} = \dfrac{1}{r_e - g}
Quick example

Cost of equity 12.5%, growth 4.5%: 1 ÷ 0.08 = 12.5.

3

Enterprise value multiples

Known

MemorizeEnterprise value and its multiples

ItemRule
EVMV debt + MV equity + MV preferred − cash and short-term investments
Firm valueMV debt + MV equity
PairingEV with EBITDA, EBIT, sales, FCFF, book value of capital
Justified EV/EBITDA[(1−t)+Dep t/EBITDA−Capex/EBITDA−ΔWC/EBITDA]/(WACC−g)[(1 - t) + \text{Dep}\,t/\text{EBITDA} - \text{Capex}/\text{EBITDA} - \Delta\text{WC}/\text{EBITDA}]/(\text{WACC} - g)
Justified EV to book capitalROC(1−reinvestment rate)/(WACC−g)\text{ROC}(1 - \text{reinvestment rate})/(\text{WACC} - g)

Memory hook Add the claims, subtract the cash; divide by what all claimants share.

Know it cold Debt-funded buyback at the market price: EV unchanged until prices move.

MemorizeWhich EV multiple

SituationUse
capital-intensive, large depreciationEV/EBITDA
amortization large, depreciation smallEV/EBITA
neither charge largeEV/EBIT
different leverage or negative book equityEV (or value) to book value of capital
significant debt, sales-basedEV/sales, not P/S
commodity producerEV per unit of production or reserves

Memory hook More capex, less value per unit of EBITDA.

Know it cold Higher WACC, higher capex, lower growth → lower justified EV/EBITDA.

Key terms

  • market capitalization Know the idea
  • enterprise value (EV) Memorize
  • firm value Know the idea
  • book value of debt as a proxy Know the idea
  • cash as a non-operating asset Use it
  • price versus EV multiples Memorize
  • EV after a change in capital structure Use it
  • EV/EBITDA Memorize
  • justified EV/EBITDA Use it
  • EV/EBITA Know the idea
  • EV/EBIT Know the idea
  • EV/sales Use it
  • value to book Use it
  • enterprise value to book Use it
  • return on capital (ROC) Use it
  • reinvestment rate Use it
  • justified EV to book value of capital Use it
  • EV/FCFF Know the idea
  • industry-specific multiples Know the idea
  • EV/developed reserves Know the idea
  • EV/production Know the idea
From market capitalization to enterprise value
Enterprise value (EV)value of the business to all claimants
  • Market value of equity Memorize price × shares outstanding
  • plus Market value of debt Memorize book value often used as a proxy
  • plus Market value of preferred shares Memorize a senior claim
  • minus Cash and short-term investments Memorize non-operating assets; never add them
Enterprise value multiples by statement
EV multiplespair EV with figures for all capital providers
  • Income statement Memorize EV/EBITDA, EV/EBITA, EV/EBIT, EV/sales
  • Balance sheet Use it value to book, EV to book value of capital
  • Cash flow Know the idea EV/FCFF = 1 ÷ (WACC − g) when justified
  • Industry-specific Know the idea EV per unit of output or reserves

Formulas

Enterprise value Memorize
EV=MV of debt+MV of equity+MV of preferred shares−Cash and short-term investmentsEV = \text{MV of debt} + \text{MV of equity} + \text{MV of preferred shares} - \text{Cash and short-term investments}
Quick example

Market capitalization 900, debt 350, preferred shares 50, cash 140: 900 + 350 + 50 − 140 = 1,160.

On your calculator
  1. 900+350+50−140= 1,160
  1. 900ENTER350+50+140− 1,160

ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

Firm value Know the idea
Firm value=MV of debt+MV of equity\text{Firm value} = \text{MV of debt} + \text{MV of equity}
Quick example

Debt 350 and equity 900 at market value: 1,250.

Justified EV/EBITDA Use it
EVEBITDA=(1−t)+Dep×tEBITDA−CapexEBITDA−ΔWCEBITDAWACC−g\dfrac{EV}{\text{EBITDA}} = \dfrac{(1 - t) + \dfrac{\text{Dep} \times t}{\text{EBITDA}} - \dfrac{\text{Capex}}{\text{EBITDA}} - \dfrac{\Delta \text{WC}}{\text{EBITDA}}}{\text{WACC} - g}
Quick example

Ratios to EBITDA: depreciation 0.20, capital expenditures 0.28, change in working capital 0.05; tax 25%; WACC 10.5%, g 3.5%: (0.75 + 0.05 − 0.28 − 0.05) ÷ 0.07 = 6.71.

On your calculator
  1. 0.75+(0.2×0.25)−0.28−0.05=÷0.07= 6.71
  1. 0.75ENTER0.2ENTER0.25×+0.28−0.05−0.07÷ 6.71

ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

Value to book and EV to book Use it
Value to book=MV equity+MV debtBV equity+BV debt,EV to book=MV equity+MV debt−CashBV equity+BV debt−Cash\text{Value to book} = \dfrac{\text{MV equity} + \text{MV debt}}{\text{BV equity} + \text{BV debt}}, \quad \text{EV to book} = \dfrac{\text{MV equity} + \text{MV debt} - \text{Cash}}{\text{BV equity} + \text{BV debt} - \text{Cash}}
Quick example

Equity 700 and debt 450 at market; book equity 350, book debt 450; cash 90: value to book 1,150 ÷ 800 = 1.44, EV to book 1,060 ÷ 710 = 1.49.

Justified EV to book value of capital Use it
EVBook value of capital=ROC×(1−Reinvestment rate)WACC−g\dfrac{EV}{\text{Book value of capital}} = \dfrac{\text{ROC} \times (1 - \text{Reinvestment rate})}{\text{WACC} - g}
Quick example

Return on capital 11%, reinvestment rate 20%, WACC 8%, g 2.2%: 0.088 ÷ 0.058 = 1.52.

On your calculator
  1. 0.11×0.8÷(0.08−0.022)= 1.52
  1. 0.11ENTER0.8×0.08ENTER0.022−÷ 1.52

ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

Value to FCFF Know the idea
VtFCFFt+1=1WACC−g\dfrac{V_t}{\text{FCFF}_{t+1}} = \dfrac{1}{\text{WACC} - g}
Quick example

WACC 8.5%, g 3.5%: 1 ÷ 0.05 = 20.0.

4

Choosing a peer group for multiples

Known

MemorizeBuilding a peer group

ApproachPeers areWatch out
Industry-basedsame principal business; then refined by size or geography, outliers, mix, costs, demand, life cyclefew peers in concentrated industries; mixed life cycles; multi-industry firms
Factor-basedfirms with similar betas, any industrymisspecified models; factors underperform for years

Memory hook Risk, growth, cash flow: the three things a peer must share.

Know it cold The best criterion is similar risk, growth and cash flow, not the industry label or the size.

MemorizeFixes for awkward peer groups

ProblemFix
concentrated industry, unique firmlittle weight on multiples; use DCF
mixed life-cycle stagesdrop peers in other stages; keep enough
multi-industry companyweighted average of segment multiples
outlier from a one-time itemexclude, adjust earnings, or use the median

Memory hook Blend by weight, never by a plain average.

Know it cold Segment multiple =∑wjMj= \sum w_j M_j, weights from revenue, operating income or assets.

Key terms

  • peer group Memorize
  • similar risk, growth and cash flow Memorize
  • industry-based peer group Memorize
  • industry classification systems Know the idea
  • refining an industry screen Use it
  • size cut-off Use it
  • outlier from a one-time item Use it
  • business mix Know the idea
  • cost structure Know the idea
  • life-cycle stage Know the idea
  • concentrated industries Memorize
  • different jurisdictions Know the idea
  • multi-industry companies Memorize
  • segment-weighted peer multiple Use it
  • factor investing Know the idea
  • systematic risk Know the idea
  • non-systematic risk Know the idea
  • factor-based peer group Memorize
  • capital asset pricing model (CAPM) Know the idea
  • beta Know the idea
  • model misspecification Know the idea
Two ways to build a peer group
Peer groupsimilar risk, growth and cash flow
  • Industry-based Memorize same principal business activity
    • Start: a classification system sector and industry codes
    • Refine size or geography, outliers, business mix, cost structure, demand, life-cycle stage
  • Factor-based Memorize similar statistical risk factors, such as beta
    • Shares a cost of equity similar expected returns
    • May differ in growth and cash flow adjust before judging
Peer group problems and fixes
Industry peers fall shortthe clean peer group does not exist
  • Concentrated industry or unique firm Memorize lean on DCF
  • Mixed life-cycle stages Memorize drop peers in other stages, keep enough
  • Different jurisdictions Know the idea rules and taxes limit comparability
  • Multi-industry company Memorize weight segment multiples by revenue, operating income or assets

Formulas

Segment-weighted peer multiple Use it
M=∑jwj×MjM = \sum_j w_j \times M_j
Quick example

Revenue 70% in a business whose peers trade at 9.0 times and 30% in one at 15.0 times: 6.3 + 4.5 = 10.8.

On your calculator
  1. 0.7×9+(0.3×15)= 10.8
  1. 0.7ENTER9×0.3ENTER15×+ 10.8

ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

CAPM (for factor-based peers) Know the idea
E(Ri)=Rf+βi [E(Rm)−Rf]E(R_i) = R_f + \beta_i\,[E(R_m) - R_f]
Quick example

Risk-free rate 4%, beta 1.2, expected market return 9%: 4% + 1.2 × 5% = 10.0%.

On your calculator
  1. 1.2×5+4= 10.0
  1. 1.2ENTER5×4+ 10.0

ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

5

Trailing, current and forward multiples

Known

MemorizeTime bases of multiples

BasisDenominatorUse and limit
Trailingprior 12 months (EPSt_t, last four quarters)what happened; backward-looking
Currentlatest reported figuresone-time items, accounting, cycle (base-year effect)
Forward, FY1, FY2next 12 months or next fiscal years (EPSt+1_{t+1})meaningful for firms with losses today; depends on forecasts
Past (history)own past multiples; peer historical averagestrends; cannot alone show misvaluation

Memory hook Trailing looks back, forward looks ahead, history shows the trend, peers show the level.

Know it cold Same basis and same price date for the company and every peer.

MemorizeTerminal values from multiples

StepRule
Terminal valueyear-n fundamental × multiple
Which multiplemature, larger, slower-growing peers
Discount(1+r)n(1 + r)^n, the full forecast length
Peer group checka whole group can be mispriced; pair with present value methods

Memory hook Value the company you will own in year n, not the one you own today.

Know it cold IV0=∑E(CFt)/(1+r)t+E(Pt+n)/(1+r)nIV_0 = \sum E(CF_t)/(1 + r)^t + E(P_{t+n})/(1 + r)^n.

Key terms

  • trailing multiple Memorize
  • current multiple Know the idea
  • forward multiple Memorize
  • FY1 and FY2 multiples Know the idea
  • same-date prices Know the idea
  • base-year effect Know the idea
  • historical multiples Use it
  • own-history comparison Use it
  • peer historical averages Use it
  • loss years in a multiple average Use it
  • projected future multiples Use it
  • forward P/E of a loss-making firm Use it
  • terminal value from a multiple Memorize
  • terminal value peer group Memorize
  • misvalued peer group Memorize
  • combining relative and present value methods Use it
Which period the multiple uses
Time basis of a multiplesame basis and same price date for every firm
  • Current Know the idea latest reported figures; exposed to one-time items and the cycle
  • Past Memorize historical multiples
    • Own history trend of the company's performance
    • Peer historical averages relative performance under similar conditions
  • Trailing Memorize prior 12 months, EPS_t
  • Forward Memorize next 12 months, EPS_{t+1}; FY1, FY2
  • Projected for a terminal value Memorize year-n figure × multiple from mature peers

Formulas

Trailing and forward P/E Memorize
Trailing P/E=PtEPSt,Forward P/E=PtEPSt+1\text{Trailing P/E} = \dfrac{P_t}{\text{EPS}_t}, \quad \text{Forward P/E} = \dfrac{P_t}{\text{EPS}_{t+1}}
Quick example

Price 54.00, trailing EPS 4.50 and consensus forward EPS 5.40: trailing P/E 12.0, forward P/E 10.0.

On your calculator
  1. 54÷4.5= 12.0
  2. 54÷5.4= 10.0
  1. 54ENTER4.5÷ 12.0
  2. 54ENTER5.4÷ 10.0

ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

Present value with a terminal multiple Use it
IV0=∑t=1nE(CFt)(1+r)t+E(Pt+n)(1+r)n,E(Pt+n)=year-n fundamental×multipleIV_0 = \sum_{t=1}^{n} \dfrac{E(CF_t)}{(1 + r)^t} + \dfrac{E(P_{t+n})}{(1 + r)^n}, \quad E(P_{t+n}) = \text{year-}n\text{ fundamental} \times \text{multiple}
Quick example

Cash flows of 10 in year 1 and 12 in year 2, a terminal multiple of 10 on the year-2 figure, required return 12%: 10 ÷ 1.12 + (12 + 120) ÷ 1.2544 = 114.16.

On your calculator
  1. 10÷1.12+(132÷1.2544)= 114.16
  1. 10ENTER1.12÷132ENTER1.2544÷+ 114.16

ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)

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