Valuing with multiples: comparables and forecasted fundamentals
KnownMemorizeThe method of comparables
| Step | What to do |
|---|---|
| 1 | choose peers with similar cash flow, risk and growth |
| 2 | select a multiple; numerator and denominator for the same claimants |
| 3 | calculate and compare; median when skewed; drop not-meaningful values |
| 4 | judge over-, under- or fairly valued |
| 5 | apply: value = multiple × fundamental, or a terminal value |
Memory hook Peers, multiple, compare, verdict, apply.
Know it cold Positive skew: mean > median, so use the median.
MemorizeJustified multiples from fundamentals
| Tool | Formula | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Justified P/B | above 1 when ROE > | |
| Sustainable growth | payout | |
| PEG | P/E ÷ growth (as a number) | higher: more likely overvalued |
| Regression | predicted vs actual multiple | predicted > actual: possibly undervalued |
Memory hook P/B lives on the spread between ROE and the cost of equity.
Know it cold Justified multiple: peer median (comparables) or value drivers (forecasted fundamentals).
Key terms
- relative valuation Know the idea
- principle of no arbitrage Know the idea
- method of comparables Memorize
- five-step relative valuation process Memorize
- peer group Use it
- multiple Know the idea
- value to claimants Know the idea
- consistency of numerator and denominator Know the idea
- central tendency of peer multiples Use it
- mean versus median Use it
- skewed distribution of multiples Use it
- outliers Use it
- not meaningful multiples Use it
- justified multiple Memorize
- method of forecasted fundamentals Memorize
- trailing multiple Use it
- forward multiple Use it
- justified price-to-book ratio Use it
- sustainable growth rate Use it
- adjustment approach Use it
- price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio Use it
- regression approach Know the idea
- value from a peer multiple Use it
- multiples in a terminal value Know the idea
- 1. Choose peers Memorize similar cash flow, risk and growth
- 2. Select a multiple Memorize numerator and denominator for the same claimants
- 3. Calculate and compare Memorize median or mean; outliers; not meaningful values
- 4. Judge the value Memorize over-, under- or fairly valued, on past, current or future figures
- 5. Apply Memorize support a discounted cash flow value or set a value range
- Method of comparables Memorize peer mean or median
- Method of forecasted fundamentals Memorize built from profitability, growth and reinvestment
- Both combined correct the peers for differences in fundamentals
- Adjustment approach Use it for example the price/earnings-to-growth ratio
- Regression approach Know the idea predicted multiple from the peers' fundamentals
-
Formulas
Quick example
A peer median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.0 and company earnings per share (EPS) of 2.40 give 12.0 × 2.40 = 28.80 per share. Applied to total net income it gives a market capitalization instead.
- 12×2.4= 28.80
- 12ENTER2.4× 28.80
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
Quick example
Return on equity 17%, cost of equity 11%, growth 3%: (0.17 − 0.03) ÷ (0.11 − 0.03) = 0.14 ÷ 0.08 = 1.75.
- 0.17−0.03=÷(0.11−0.03)= 1.75
- 0.17ENTER0.03−0.11ENTER0.03−÷ 1.75
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
Quick example
Payout ratio 40% and return on equity 15%: 0.60 × 15% = 9.0%.
- 1−0.4=×0.15= 0.09
- 1ENTER0.4−0.15× 0.09
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
Quick example
A P/E of 24 with expected EPS growth of 12% (entered as 12) gives 24 ÷ 12 = 2.00.
- 24÷12= 2.00
- 24ENTER12÷ 2.00
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
Quick example
Estimated a = −0.80, b₁ = 20, b₂ = 25; a peer with ROE 12% and growth 3% is predicted at −0.80 + 2.40 + 0.75 = 2.35.
- 0.8+|-+(20×0.12)+(25×0.03)= 2.35
+|- change sign
- 0.8CHSENTER20ENTER0.12×+25ENTER0.03×+ 2.35
CHS change sign · ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)