Forward price vs forward value: at initiation, during the life, at expiry
The forward price is the fixed price written in the contract. The forward's value is what the position is worth today: zero at initiation, then the spot price minus the present value of the forward price, and at expiration simply the spot price minus the forward price.
Before this: Arbitrage, Replication and the Cost of Carry
On the exam
- Explain how the value and price of a forward contract are determined at initiation, during the life of the contract, and at expiration
Explain how the value and price of a forward contract are determined at initiation, during the life and at expiration. Expect a numeric value-during-the-life question (long or short) and a concept question on price versus value.
How deeply to learn each part
- Know the idea
- Understand it in general. It frames other topics, but you will not calculate with it.
- Use it
- Understand it well enough to solve a question with it. Recognize when it applies.
- Memorize
- Learn it by heart. The exam will not give it to you.
You know this one. The full lesson is folded away. The takeaways, formulas and checkpoint below are your quick refresher, and the checkpoint is a fair test of whether you still do.
You tested strong here. The full lesson is folded away. The takeaways, formulas and checkpoint below are your quick refresher, and the checkpoint is a fair test of whether you still know it.
What is the difference between a forward’s price and its value?
The forward price and the forward value are two different numbers, and the exam checks that you can tell them apart. The price is the rate written into the contract. The value is what the position is worth right now.
| Forward price, F₀(T) | Forward value, V_t(T) | |
|---|---|---|
| What it is | The price agreed today for exchange at T | The gain or loss if the contract were settled now |
| At initiation | Set so the contract is fair | Zero |
| After initiation | Never changes | Moves with the spot price, time and rates |
| Same for both sides? | Yes | Equal and opposite: the long’s gain is the short’s loss |
The value is a mark to market (MTM) figure. It measures the gain or loss for a counterparty if the contract were settled immediately. Over-the-counter forwards usually settle only at maturity, so the MTM is a paper gain or loss until then. Futures pay it out daily.
- Initiation (t = 0) Memorize V₀(T) = 0; F₀(T) set by no arbitrage
- During the life (t) Memorize V_t(T) = S_t − F₀(T)(1 + r)^−(T−t)
- Expiration (T) Memorize V_T(T) = S_T − F₀(T); the settlement amount
What is a forward worth at initiation?
The value at initiation is zero for both sides. The forward price is chosen so that neither party gains or loses at the start, which is why no cash changes hands. For an asset with no income or costs, no arbitrage fixes that price at the spot price compounded at the risk-free rate.
The same equation tells you the risk-free rate that the two prices imply.
What is a forward worth at expiration?
The value at expiration is the settlement amount. At T the spot price and the forward price are both prices for immediate exchange, so nothing is left to discount.
| Outcome at T | Long | Short |
|---|---|---|
| S_T above F₀(T) | Gain | Loss |
| S_T below F₀(T) | Loss | Gain |
| S_T equals F₀(T) | Zero | Zero |
The long buys at F₀(T) something worth S_T. If S_T is higher, the long gains. The short is on the other side of the same trade.
What is a forward worth during its life?
The value during the life is the gain or loss at time t if the contract were closed now. The long effectively owns the asset, worth S_t, and owes the forward price at T. What it owes is not F₀(T) in today’s money. It is the present value of the forward price , discounted at the risk-free rate over the remaining time T − t.
A forward was agreed at a price of 154.50. With 0.5 years left the spot price is 158.00 and the risk-free rate is 3.00%. The asset pays no income and has no costs. The value of the long position is closest to:
158.00 − 154.50 × (1 + 0.03)^−0.5 = 158.00 − 152.23 = 5.77
Value of the long position, V_t(T)5.77
- 1.03y^x0.5+|-=×154.5=152.2334
- +|-+158=5.7666
y^x power · +|- change sign
- 1.03ENTER0.5CHSy^x154.5×152.2334
- CHS158+5.7666
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · CHS change sign · y^x power
Try this 0 of 3
- Slide today all the way to expiry
- Before expiry, drag the spot at today's date to exactly the forward price
- Partway through the life, raise the rate today above the starting rate
Spot path (drag the dots or type)
Blue: spot path. Dashed: the forward price, which never moves. Purple: the PV of the forward price, rising to meet it at expiry. The bar at today is the long's value.
The long is worth +5.77. The long owns the asset in effect (158.00) and owes 154.50 in 6 months, worth 152.23 today. The short holds the mirror image.
Show working
Price at initiation: F₀(T) = S₀ × (1 + r)T = 150.00 × 1.031 = 154.50. Value at initiation: 0.
During the life (t = 6 months, 6 months left): PV of F₀(T) = 154.50 × 1.03−0.5 = 152.23
Long V_t = S_t − F₀(T)(1 + r)−(T − t) = 158.00 − 152.23 = +5.77; short = −5.77.
Traps: ignoring the discounting gives +3.50; discounting over the full term T gives +8.00.
- 1.03y^x1=×150=154.50, the forward price
y^x power
- 150ENTER1.03ENTER1y^x×154.50, the forward price
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · y^x power
- 1.03y^x0.5=1/x×154.5=152.23, PV of F₀(T)
- +|-+158=+5.77, long value
y^x power · 1/x reciprocal · +|- change sign
- 158ENTER154.5ENTER1.03ENTER0.5y^x÷−+5.77, long value
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · y^x power
The present value of the forward price starts at the spot price on the day the contract is agreed, S₀, and drifts up toward F₀(T) at the risk-free rate as expiration nears. Where the spot price sits relative to that line decides who is ahead.
- S_t above it Memorize long: MTM gain; short: MTM loss
- S_t below it Memorize long: MTM loss; short: MTM gain
- S_t equal to it Memorize no gain or loss for either side
What moves the value?
Three things move V_t(T) after initiation, and the exam asks about each.
- The spot price. A jump in S_t moves the long’s value one for one. Right after initiation the PV of the forward price still equals S₀, so a jump from USD 150 to USD 165 gives the long 165 − 150 = USD 15.
- Time. The present value of the forward price grows toward F₀(T) as expiration nears. With the spot price unchanged, the long’s value drifts down and the short’s drifts up.
- The interest rate. A higher rate lowers the present value of the forward price. That helps the long and hurts the short.
Exam tip Whenever a question says “during the life”, discount the forward price over T − t, not T.
Go deeper Credit risk follows the value
A counterparty to an over-the-counter forward faces the other side’s credit risk only while its own value is positive. If V_t(T) is positive for the long, the short owes it money and could default. Dealers measure that exposure from the same MTM formula.
Go deeper Closing out early with an offsetting forward
Instead of waiting, a party can enter an offsetting forward at today’s price. The two forward prices lock in a difference that is paid at T. The present value of that difference is the value of the original forward today.
Memorize this
MemorizeValue of a forward at each date (no income or costs)
| When | Long | Short |
|---|---|---|
| Initiation, | ||
| During the life, | ||
| Expiration, |
Memory hook Long = what you hold (spot) minus what you owe (the forward price, in today's money). Short is the mirror. At the two sides cancel; at nothing is left to discount.
Know it cold Discount only over the remaining time . Price is fixed; value starts at zero and moves.
- Initiation (t = 0) Memorize V₀(T) = 0; F₀(T) set by no arbitrage
- During the life (t) Memorize V_t(T) = S_t − F₀(T)(1 + r)^−(T−t)
- Expiration (T) Memorize V_T(T) = S_T − F₀(T); the settlement amount
- S_t above it Memorize long: MTM gain; short: MTM loss
- S_t below it Memorize long: MTM loss; short: MTM gain
- S_t equal to it Memorize no gain or loss for either side
Quick example
A share trades at 80 and r = 3%. The nine-month forward price is 80 × 1.03^0.75 = 81.79.
- 1.03y^x0.75=×80= 81.7933
y^x power
- 1.03ENTER0.75y^x80× 81.7933
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · y^x power
Quick example
Entering a forward at the no-arbitrage price costs nothing and is worth zero to both sides.
Quick example
Forward agreed at 1,250 and spot ends at 1,190. Long: 1,190 − 1,250 = −60. Short: +60.
- 1190−1250= -60
- 1190ENTER1250− -60
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
Quick example
Forward agreed at 46.00, spot now 44.50, r = 5%, 0.4 years left. PV of the forward price = 46 × 1.05^−0.4 = 45.11. Value = 44.50 − 45.11 = −0.61.
- 1.05y^x0.4+|-=×46= 45.11
- +|-+44.5= -0.61
y^x power · +|- change sign
- 1.05ENTER0.4CHSy^x46× 45.11
- CHS44.5+ -0.61
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · CHS change sign · y^x power
Quick example
Same contract from the short side: 45.11 − 44.50 = +0.61. The short gains exactly what the long loses.
- 1.05y^x0.4+|-=×46−44.5= 0.61
y^x power · +|- change sign
- 1.05ENTER0.4CHSy^x46×44.5− 0.61
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · CHS change sign · y^x power
How it is asked
-
Value of the long partway through
Forward agreed at 74.00, one year; after three months spot is 75.60 and r = 3%. Long value?
75.60 − 74.00 × 1.03^−0.75 = 3.22. Traps: 1.60 (no discounting), 3.76 (discounted over the full year).
-
Value of the short
Short forward at 320, six months left, spot 312, r = 3%.
320 × 1.03^−0.5 − 312 = 3.31. Trap: the long's sign (−3.31).
-
Price and value at initiation
Which is zero at initiation, the price or the value?
Value is zero; the price is set by no arbitrage. Trap: saying the price is zero.
-
Interest rates rise, spot unchanged
What happens to the long and the short?
PV of F₀ falls, so the long gains, the short loses.
Exam traps
- Discounting the forward price over the full term T instead of the remaining time T − t.
- Using S_t − F₀(T) during the life. That is the expiration formula; before expiry the forward price must be discounted.
- Saying the forward price changes after initiation. It is fixed; only the value moves.
- Sign errors for the short. The short's value is the long's value with the sign flipped.
Checkpoint
5 exam-style questions. About 90 seconds each.
1A one-year forward was agreed at F₀(T) = CHF 62.00. Three months later the spot price is CHF 63.10 and the risk-free rate is 4%. The asset pays no income and has no costs. The value of the long position is closest to:
2A trader is short a forward agreed at F₀(T) = 500 with six months to expiration. The spot price is 485 and the risk-free rate is 2%. The asset pays no income and has no costs. The value of the short position is closest to:
3At initiation of a forward contract, the forward price and the forward value are best described as:
4A portfolio manager is long a forward on an asset with no income or costs. Two months into the contract the spot price has not moved, but the risk-free rate rises by one percentage point. Compared with just before the rate change, the mark-to-market value of the long position has most likely:
5A trader is short a forward agreed at F₀(T) = 840. At expiration the spot price is 872. The value of the short position at expiration is closest to:
Key takeaways
- The forward price is fixed at initiation; the value starts at zero and moves with the spot price, time and interest rates.
- Long value during the life = S_t minus the present value of F₀(T) over the remaining time T − t. The short is the negative.
- At expiration the value is the settlement amount: S_T − F₀(T) for the long.
- If rates rise with the spot price unchanged, the present value of the forward price falls: the long gains and the short loses.
Quick example
A share trades at 80 and r = 3%. The nine-month forward price is 80 × 1.03^0.75 = 81.79.
- 1.03y^x0.75=×80= 81.7933
y^x power
- 1.03ENTER0.75y^x80× 81.7933
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · y^x power
Quick example
Entering a forward at the no-arbitrage price costs nothing and is worth zero to both sides.
Quick example
Forward agreed at 1,250 and spot ends at 1,190. Long: 1,190 − 1,250 = −60. Short: +60.
- 1190−1250= -60
- 1190ENTER1250− -60
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
Quick example
Forward agreed at 46.00, spot now 44.50, r = 5%, 0.4 years left. PV of the forward price = 46 × 1.05^−0.4 = 45.11. Value = 44.50 − 45.11 = −0.61.
- 1.05y^x0.4+|-=×46= 45.11
- +|-+44.5= -0.61
y^x power · +|- change sign
- 1.05ENTER0.4CHSy^x46× 45.11
- CHS44.5+ -0.61
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · CHS change sign · y^x power
Quick example
Same contract from the short side: 45.11 − 44.50 = +0.61. The short gains exactly what the long loses.
- 1.05y^x0.4+|-=×46−44.5= 0.61
y^x power · +|- change sign
- 1.05ENTER0.4CHSy^x46×44.5− 0.61
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack) · CHS change sign · y^x power
All Derivatives formulas, every lesson
Practice exam-style questions on Pricing and Valuing Forward Contracts and FRAs
Questions about this lesson?
Where this comes back
- Valuing a forward when the asset pays income or has costs Pricing and Valuing Forward Contracts and FRAs
- Pricing and Valuing Futures Contracts Derivatives
- Pricing and Valuing Interest Rate Swaps Derivatives
Questions candidates ask
What is the difference between the price and value of a forward contract?
The price is the fixed rate for the future exchange, set at initiation so the contract costs nothing. The value is what the contract is worth to a party right now, if it were closed out. The price never changes; the value starts at zero and moves with the spot price, time and interest rates.
How do you value a forward contract before expiration?
For the long, subtract the present value of the forward price from the current spot price: S_t − F₀(T)(1 + r)^−(T−t), where T − t is the time remaining. The short is the negative. If the asset pays income or has costs, adjust the spot price for them first.
Why is a forward contract worth zero at inception?
Because the forward price is set by no arbitrage: it equals the spot price compounded at the risk-free rate (adjusted for carry). At that price neither side expects to gain, so no money changes hands and the value to both parties is zero.
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