The CAPM and the security market line
The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) says an asset's expected return is the risk-free rate plus its beta times the market risk premium: E(Ri) = Rf + βi[E(Rm) − Rf]. Plotted against beta, that is the security market line. Correctly priced assets sit on it; one forecast to beat it is undervalued.
Before this: How to calculate and interpret beta
On the exam
- Explain the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), including its assumptions, and the security market line (SML)
- Calculate and interpret the expected return of an asset using the CAPM
- Describe and demonstrate applications of the CAPM and the SML
Explain the CAPM, its assumptions and the SML; calculate an expected return; describe and demonstrate applications. Expect one CAPM calculation, a portfolio version of it, and an item on whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued.
How deeply to learn each part
- Know the idea
- Understand it in general. It frames other topics, but you will not calculate with it.
- Use it
- Understand it well enough to solve a question with it. Recognize when it applies.
- Memorize
- Learn it by heart. The exam will not give it to you.
You know this one. The full lesson is folded away. The takeaways, formulas and checkpoint below are your quick refresher, and the checkpoint is a fair test of whether you still do.
You tested strong here. The full lesson is folded away. The takeaways, formulas and checkpoint below are your quick refresher, and the checkpoint is a fair test of whether you still know it.
What does the CAPM say?
The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) prices an asset using only its systematic risk. The expected return is the risk-free rate plus compensation for beta, and the compensation per unit of beta is the market risk premium , the market’s expected return over the risk-free rate.
The result is also the required return on the asset: the return investors must expect to hold it, given its systematic risk.
The risk-free rate is 3.00% and the expected market return is 8.50%. A stock has a beta of 1.1. Its expected return under the CAPM is closest to:
3 + 1.1 × (8.5 − 3) = 9.05%
Expected (required) return9.05%
- 8.5−3=×1.1+3=percent
- 8.5ENTER3−1.1×3+percent
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
What does the CAPM assume?
Like any model, the CAPM simplifies. The CAPM assumptions are:
- Investors are risk-averse, utility-maximizing and rational.
- Markets are frictionless: no transaction costs, no taxes, no limits on short selling, and borrowing and lending at the risk-free rate.
- Everyone plans for the same single holding period.
- Investors have homogeneous expectations.
- All investments are infinitely divisible.
- Investors are price takers.
Not all assumptions matter equally. Costs, taxes and the borrowing rate change the conclusions only a little. Limits on short selling can bias prices, and non-homogeneous expectations matter if they produce very different optimal portfolios.
What is the security market line?
The security market line (SML) is the CAPM drawn on a chart: beta on the horizontal axis, expected return on the vertical axis. The intercept is the risk-free rate and the slope is the market risk premium. Every asset and every portfolio, efficient or not, should plot on it if it is correctly priced. The table compares it with the capital market line (CML).
| CML | SML | |
|---|---|---|
| Risk measure | σ (total risk) | β (systematic risk) |
| Which assets | efficient portfolios only | every asset and portfolio |
| Slope | market Sharpe ratio | market risk premium |
Try this 0 of 3
- Lower the forecast until the stock drops below the SML
- Raise Rf to 4% while keeping E(Rm) at 8.5% (so the premium falls to 4.5%)
- Show the CML and find the same stock on it
Security market line (x-axis: beta)
- SML
Stock: beta 1.1, required 9.05%, expected 10.00%, alpha +0.95%, undervalued.
Show working
Stock: required return = Rf + β × (E(Rm) − Rf) = 3.00% + 1.1 × 5.50% = 9.05%
Alpha = 10.00% − 9.05% = +0.95%, so undervalued
- 1.1×5.5+3=required 9.05
- 10−9.05=0.95
- 1.1ENTER5.5×3+required 9.05
- 10ENTER9.05−0.95
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
Display: 0.95
Market risk premium = E(Rm) − Rf = 8.50% − 3.00% = 5.50%. If a question gives E(Rm), subtract Rf before multiplying by β.
Move the risk-free rate and the market risk premium and watch the line redraw. Then drag the analyst’s forecast above or below the line: above the line is cheap, below the line is expensive.
How is the CAPM used?
- Estimating a required return Use it cost of equity, discount rate for valuation and capital budgeting
- Security selection Use it compare an analyst’s forecast with the CAPM return
- Forecast above the SML Memorize undervalued, buy
- Forecast below the SML Memorize overvalued, avoid or sell
-
- Performance appraisal Use it compare a portfolio’s actual return with its CAPM return (alpha)
- Portfolio construction Use it tilt away from the market toward positive-alpha assets, accepting some nonsystematic risk
Cost of equity and valuation. The CAPM return is the discount rate for equity valuation and capital budgeting. It is normally the first estimate analysts use.
Security selection. Compare an analyst’s forecast with the CAPM required return. The gap sorts undervalued and overvalued securities : a positive alpha means the asset plots above the SML.
Performance appraisal. The regression of an asset’s excess returns on the market’s excess returns is the security characteristic line . Its slope is beta and its intercept is Jensen’s alpha, which the next lesson uses to judge a manager.
Portfolio construction. A passive investor holds the market. An active manager tilts toward positive-alpha assets and away from negative-alpha ones, accepting some nonsystematic risk in exchange for a chance of beating the market.
A portfolio is priced like any asset, using its beta from the weighted average of its holdings.
Where does the CAPM fall short?
- Theoretical limits Use it built into the model itself
- Single factor Use it only beta is priced; no other characteristic counts
- Single period Use it ignores what happens in later periods, so decisions can be short-sighted
-
- Practical limits Use it arise when the model is applied
- The market portfolio cannot be observed Use it it holds every asset, including non-investable ones (Roll’s critique)
- Proxies for the market differ Use it different analysts get different returns for the same asset
- Beta is estimated from history Use it the model looks forward; betas change with period, interval and index
- Poor predictor of returns Use it empirical support is weak
- Needs homogeneous expectations Use it otherwise many optimal portfolios and many SMLs
-
Because of these limits, models that add factors were developed. The arbitrage pricing theory (APT) is the theoretical one: it also gives a linear relationship, but with any number of factors, each with its own premium λ and sensitivity β.
- Theoretical: arbitrage pricing theory Know the idea many factors, not specified; no-arbitrage argument; hard to use
- Practical: Fama–French and Carhart Know the idea market, size, value, momentum; explains returns better, no equilibrium theory behind it
Go deeper Why the CAPM is still used, and Roll’s critique
Despite weak empirical support, the CAPM is simple, needs only one input beyond the risk-free rate, and gives a defensible benchmark return. APT does not name its factors, which makes it hard to apply, and the Fama–French and Carhart models fit past returns better but have no equilibrium theory behind them and may not keep working.
Richard Roll argued that the CAPM cannot really be tested, because the true market portfolio, containing every asset, cannot be observed.
Exam tip Premium first: subtract Rf from the market return, multiply by beta, then add Rf back. Above the SML means undervalued.
Memorize this
MemorizeCAPM assumptions
| Assumption | Does relaxing it hurt? |
|---|---|
| Risk-averse, utility-maximizing, rational investors | little, unless irrational trades move prices |
| Frictionless: no costs, no taxes, no short-sale limits, borrow and lend at Rf | costs and taxes little; short-sale limits can bias prices |
| Same single holding period | little |
| Homogeneous expectations | matters if optimal portfolios then differ a lot |
| Infinitely divisible investments | no |
| Investors are price takers | no |
Memory hook Six: rational, frictionless, one period, same views, divisible, price takers. The false one on the exam is usually "different expectations" or "different horizons".
Know it cold Short-selling limits and non-homogeneous expectations bite most.
MemorizeCML versus SML
| CML | SML | |
|---|---|---|
| Risk measure | σ (total risk) | β (systematic risk) |
| Which assets | efficient portfolios only | every asset and portfolio |
| Slope | market Sharpe ratio | market risk premium |
| Intercept | Rf | Rf |
Memory hook CML: sigma, efficient only. SML: beta, everything.
MemorizeReading a point against the SML
| Forecast return versus SML | Alpha | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Above the line | positive | undervalued: price too low, buy |
| On the line | zero | fairly priced |
| Below the line | negative | overvalued: price too high |
Memory hook Above the line is cheap: it pays more than its risk demands, so its price must rise.
- Estimating a required return Use it cost of equity, discount rate for valuation and capital budgeting
- Security selection Use it compare an analyst’s forecast with the CAPM return
- Forecast above the SML Memorize undervalued, buy
- Forecast below the SML Memorize overvalued, avoid or sell
-
- Performance appraisal Use it compare a portfolio’s actual return with its CAPM return (alpha)
- Portfolio construction Use it tilt away from the market toward positive-alpha assets, accepting some nonsystematic risk
- Theoretical limits Use it built into the model itself
- Single factor Use it only beta is priced; no other characteristic counts
- Single period Use it ignores what happens in later periods, so decisions can be short-sighted
-
- Practical limits Use it arise when the model is applied
- The market portfolio cannot be observed Use it it holds every asset, including non-investable ones (Roll’s critique)
- Proxies for the market differ Use it different analysts get different returns for the same asset
- Beta is estimated from history Use it the model looks forward; betas change with period, interval and index
- Poor predictor of returns Use it empirical support is weak
- Needs homogeneous expectations Use it otherwise many optimal portfolios and many SMLs
-
- Theoretical: arbitrage pricing theory Know the idea many factors, not specified; no-arbitrage argument; hard to use
- Practical: Fama–French and Carhart Know the idea market, size, value, momentum; explains returns better, no equilibrium theory behind it
Quick example
Rf = 1.5%, E(Rm) = 8.0%, β = 1.2. E = 1.5 + 1.2 × (8.0 − 1.5) = 9.3%. Subtract Rf from the market return first.
- 8−1.5=×1.2+1.5= 9.3
- 8ENTER1.5−1.2×1.5+ 9.3
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
Quick example
Rf = 4%, E(Rm) = 9%, β = 1.1, forecast 9.0%. Required = 4 + 1.1 × 5 = 9.5%, so α = −0.5%: below the SML, overvalued.
- 9−4=×1.1+4=+|-+9= −0.5
+|- change sign
- 9ENTER9ENTER4−1.1×4+− −0.5
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
Quick example
Rf = 3%. Factor 1: premium 4%, β 0.9. Factor 2: premium 2.5%, β 1.2. E = 3 + 3.6 + 3.0 = 9.6%.
- 0.9×4+(1.2×2.5)+3= 9.6
- 0.9ENTER4×1.2ENTER2.5×+3+ 9.6
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
How it is asked
-
CAPM with the market return given
Rf 1.5%, E(Rm) 8.0%, β 1.2. Expected return?
1.5 + 1.2 × (8.0 − 1.5) = 9.30%. Traps: 9.60% (1.2 × 8.0), 11.10% (market return as the premium).
-
Undervalued or overvalued?
Forecast 9.5%, β 0.8, Rf 2%, E(Rm) 8.5%.
Required 2 + 0.8 × 6.5 = 7.2%. Forecast is higher: above the SML, undervalued.
-
Portfolio CAPM return
Weights in cash, market and a stock with a given beta. Expected return?
Weighted-average beta first (cash is 0, market is 1), then CAPM with βp.
-
Which is an assumption?
Borrow and lend at Rf, or different expectations?
Borrow and lend at Rf is an assumption. Different expectations or horizons are not.
Exam traps
- Using E(Rm) as the premium. Subtract Rf first: the premium is E(Rm) − Rf.
- Saying above the SML means overvalued. The asset returns more than required, so its price is too low: it is undervalued.
- Confusing the CML and the SML axes. CML: standard deviation, efficient portfolios. SML: beta, every asset.
- Treating the CAPM as describing realized returns. It gives an expected, required return; actual returns can differ.
Checkpoint
4 exam-style questions. About 90 seconds each.
1The risk-free rate is 2.0%, the expected market return is 7.5% and a stock's beta is 1.4. The stock's CAPM expected return is closest to:
2An analyst forecasts an 11% return for a stock with a beta of 0.9. The risk-free rate is 3% and the expected market return is 9%. The stock is most likely:
3Which of the following is an assumption of the CAPM?
4A portfolio is 25% Treasury bills, 35% the market portfolio and 40% a stock with a beta of 1.3. The risk-free rate is 3% and the expected market return is 9%. The portfolio's CAPM expected return is closest to:
Key takeaways
- CAPM: E(Ri) = Rf + βi[E(Rm) − Rf]. Subtract Rf from the market return first.
- The SML plots expected return against beta; all correctly priced assets sit on it.
- Above the SML: undervalued. Below the SML: overvalued.
- Uses: cost of equity, security selection, performance appraisal and portfolio construction.
Quick example
Rf = 1.5%, E(Rm) = 8.0%, β = 1.2. E = 1.5 + 1.2 × (8.0 − 1.5) = 9.3%. Subtract Rf from the market return first.
- 8−1.5=×1.2+1.5= 9.3
- 8ENTER1.5−1.2×1.5+ 9.3
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
Quick example
Rf = 4%, E(Rm) = 9%, β = 1.1, forecast 9.0%. Required = 4 + 1.1 × 5 = 9.5%, so α = −0.5%: below the SML, overvalued.
- 9−4=×1.1+4=+|-+9= −0.5
+|- change sign
- 9ENTER9ENTER4−1.1×4+− −0.5
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
Quick example
Rf = 3%. Factor 1: premium 4%, β 0.9. Factor 2: premium 2.5%, β 1.2. E = 3 + 3.6 + 3.0 = 9.6%.
- 0.9×4+(1.2×2.5)+3= 9.6
- 0.9ENTER4×1.2ENTER2.5×+3+ 9.6
ENTER enter (on the HP, puts the number on the stack)
All Portfolio Construction formulas, every lesson
Practice exam-style questions on Portfolio Risk and Return: Part II (CAPM and Performance Measures)
Questions about this lesson?
Where this comes back
- Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, M² and Jensen's alpha Portfolio Risk and Return: Part II (CAPM and Performance Measures)
- Equity Valuation: Concepts and Basic Tools Equity Investments
- Capital Structure Corporate Finance
Questions candidates ask
What is the CAPM formula?
E(Ri) = Rf + βi × [E(Rm) − Rf]. The expected return on an asset is the risk-free rate plus its beta times the market risk premium. If a question gives the market return rather than the premium, subtract the risk-free rate first.
What is the difference between the CML and the SML?
The capital market line plots return against total risk (standard deviation) and holds only efficient portfolios; its slope is the market's Sharpe ratio. The security market line plots return against beta and holds every asset and portfolio; its slope is the market risk premium.
How do you know if a stock is undervalued using the SML?
Compute the CAPM required return from its beta and compare it with your forecast. If the forecast is higher, the stock plots above the SML, it offers more than its risk demands, and it is undervalued. If the forecast is lower, it plots below the line and is overvalued.
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